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War, FPI exit play spoilsport; push IPOs worth Rs 77K crore to back burner


The mega plans of over 50 companies to raise more than Rs 77,000 crore through initial public offerings (IPOs) seem to have been put on the back burner for now following the market volatility and exit of foreign portfolio investors in the wake of the Russian war on Ukraine. This is besides the LIC IPO through which the government plans to raise around Rs 60,000 crore. While the issue received Sebi approval last week, it is set to get delayed, given the current market situation.

Many of these issuers had planned their IPOs after the boom in 2021 saw a host of companies, including new-age companies, to firm up plans for IPOs in 2022. But their plans hit a roadblock with the benchmark Sensex falling over 8,300 points, or 13.5 per cent, between January 14 and March 7 amid the huge sell-off by FPIs as concerns over rising interest rates in the US, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the rise in crude oil prices accentuated the already parlous situation, leading to further panic in the market.

Even as the Sensex staged a recovery of 9.5 per cent over the 8 trading sessions since March 7, in line with correction in crude price and progress on talks between Russia and Ukraine, market participants feel that as markets are expected to remain volatile, it may take some time before the issuers and merchant bankers have the confidence to roll out their IPOs.

Investment bankers say the sustained sell-off by FPIs has put a spanner in the works of issuers. FPIs were major subscribers of shares offered through the IPO route in 2021 as they bought shares worth Rs 80,314 crore in IPOs. This is at a time when FPIs had sold Rs 54,563 crore from the secondary markets. “FPIs were a major factor in the success of IPOs in 2021. They are missing in 2022,” said an investment banking source. Between January and March 2022, FPIs have sold equity holdings worth Rs 110,974 crore from Indian markets.

Market participants say that the primary market activity will only pick up once the secondary market stabilises and starts witnessing investor enthusiasm. While a large number of issuers bunched up their issues to capitalise on the investor enthusiasm in 2021 and capitalise on the premium that investors were willing to pay, investor focus has now shifted towards listed blue-chip companies.

Besides, market participants feel that investors are likely to take a very guarded call on new-age technology companies that come for listing this year. This caution is on account of the sharp correction in the share prices of some of these companies that got listed in 2021.

While Paytm is trading at 72 per cent below its issue price, CarTrade Tech is trading at 64 per cent below its issue price. If FSN Ecommerce Ventures has seen a sharp decline in its share price from an all time high of Rs 2,574 to Rs 1,552 now — a premium of 38 per cent over its issue price of

Rs 1,125, Zomato too is trading just above its issue price of Rs 75 and closed at Rs 80.7 on Thursday.

“The current situation in the market and high volatility is likely to continue due to geopolitical tensions and fear of stagflation on account on higher crude and other commodities prices,” said Ravi Singh, vice president and head of research, Share India.

As the response in primary market depends on the activities in the secondary market, the extraordinary volatility in the primary market since last few months has forced the companies to hit a pause button on their IPOs, he said.

“About 50 companies were set to raise Rs 77,000 crore from the market. The rising crude prices have caused inflationary concerns for companies, whose effect is seen on the stock prices. The IPO of LIC was expected to be launched by March-end but now it will be done in the next fiscal,” said Manoj Dalmia, founder and director, Proficient Equities Pvt Ltd. IPOs of Go Airlines, API Holdings, Delhivery, Emcure Pharma and Swiggy are among the companies that have planned IPOs. “However, the market is currently facing sell-off by FPIs, whose support is needed to create liquidity when such big-ticket size IPOs are involved,” he said.

The much-talked about public issue of LIC is expected to get deferred now in line with the weakness in equity markets over geopolitical concerns. Experts say that even if a company comes out with a public issue, it may not witness the enthusiasm received by many issues over the last one year and the returns too may be limited.

The validity period of Sebi’s observation letter is 12 months only — the company has to open its issue within the period of 12 months starting from the date of issuing the observation letter. This means if issuers who received the Sebi nod will have to submit a fresh prospectus if they are unable to launch the IPOs within 12 months.

In order to make the most of the rising market in 2021, as many as 50 companies managed to raise in excess of Rs 1.1 lakh crore from the equity markets — the highest mobilisation in a year. In line with interest from all categories of investors, retail investors too queued up in big numbers and, in many cases, returned dejected and empty handed, as issues got mobbed and some of them even received subscription of over 100 times. Many new-age companies, which raised money through IPOs last year, are now quoting below their issue prices.





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Rupee under pressure as FPIs rush to the exit door, pull out Rs 2 lakh crore since October


The ongoing sell-off by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) has led to withdrawal of over Rs 2,00,000 crore from the domestic stock markets since October last year. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has added to the nervousness of FPIs, already bracing for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The FPI pull-out has hit the rupee, with its exchange rate against the dollar falling below the 76 level to 76.16 despite heavy RBI intervention.

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On March 4, FPIs pulled out Rs 7,631 crore from the stock markets, taking the total outflows to Rs 18,614 crore in the last three sessions of March as Russia intensified the attack on Ukraine and oil prices soared. This outflow has come after withdrawals of

Rs 45,720 crore in February and Rs 41,346 crore in January. With this, FPIs have pulled out

Rs 2,06,646 crore (excluding FPI investments in IPOs) since October 1, 2021.

If the situation in Ukraine worsens and FPI sales continue, the rupee will cross the 77 level against the dollar in the coming days, analysts said. While banks have been purchasing dollars to facilitate FPI pull-out, the RBI has been selling dollar from its forex kitty to salvage the rupee, said a banking source.

During the week ended February 25, India’s foreign currency assets declined by $ 2.228 billion. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict is hurting Indian rupee, bonds and equities via three channels: oil prices, US dollar Index and global equity prices,” said a Kotak Securities report.

Analysts said there could be a further temporary shock if things worsen more in Europe or, for that matter, a new front opens up in Asia. While the rupee is likely to remain under pressure, the RBI with its forex kitty of $631 billion will be able to prevent a big slide in the currency.

However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs), led by LIC, mutual funds and insurance companies, have been stepping up their purchases, absorbing most of the FPI sales. “There is a tug-of-war going on between FPIs and DIIs,” said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Countering the FPI strategy, DIIs have invested Rs 12,599 crore in March 1-4, adding to their total investments of Rs 1,42,872 crore since October 2021. DIIs invested a record amount of Rs 42,084 crore in February, their highest monthly investment since they put Rs 55,595 crore in March 2020 when Covid pandemic hit the country.

Despite a correction of around 13 per cent from the peak in Nifty, FPIs continue to sell since market sentiments have been impacted globally by the uncertainty triggered by the war and the surge in crude prices. This is likely to impact the IPO market and LIC’s plan for listing this fiscal and push up the current account deficit (CAD).

The Sensex has already fallen 5 per cent, or 2,899 points, to 54,333.81 since February 24 when the Russian invasion of Ukraine started. Global markets are spooked with the events happening in Europe, which are causing volatility. “FPIs have been sellers for almost 6 months now. Commodities are hitting highs across the board – oil, coal, metals and agri-commodities,” said Vineet Bagri, managing partner, TrustPlutus Wealth.

The FPI pull-out is dampening the sentiment in equity and forex markets. “Their impact on markets is visible, with increase in volatility and declining equity prices. However, the fact that this selling by foreign investors has been absorbed by domestic investors bodes well for the outlook of Indian markets,” Bagri said.

According to a Morgan Stanley report, supply constrained oil price rises are bad for India. Indeed, the recent 25 per cent jump in oil prices will expand the current account deficit by 75 bps and inflation by 100 bps on an annualised basis, it said.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said he will back a quarter point rate increase when the Fed meets March 15-16, putting to rest debate over starting a post-pandemic round of rate hikes with a larger than usual half-point increase.





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Delhi News

Rupee sinks 109 paise, worst in Asia; RBI intervenes to reduce volatility



The tumbled the most in eight months on Thursday as the dollar strengthened against major global currencies after Russia invaded Ukraine, sending crude oil prices over $100 per barrel.


Several banks started buying dollars on behalf of oil-marketing companies as Brent crude surged past the $100-mark, further weighing down the Indian currency. The fell 1.4 per cent against the greenback, or 109 paise. The currency closed the day at 75.65 to a dollar – its lowest since December 20, 2021.


“The fell sharply in Thursday’s session as tensions between Russia and Ukraine reached boiling point. Reports of Russia invading Ukraine upset the overall market sentiment and led to weakness in riskier assets as well. Safe-haven assets like gold, silver, and the Japanese yen induced buying interest,” said Gaurang Somaiya, foreign exchange (forex) and bullion analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.


According to currency dealers, the rupee gained against the dollar in recent weeks due to positive sentiment as some of the initial public offerings of Indian companies, including the country’s largest insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India, were scheduled to hit the market in March.




Currency dealers said since the rupee was appreciating in recent times, a steep fall was inevitable when a risk-averse situation arises. After Thursday’s fall, the rupee is the worst-performing currency in Asia in 2022, barring the Japanese yen.


Dealers said the central bank intervened in early trades to reduce volatility rather than reverse the trend after the rupee opened weak at 75.15. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) always maintains that it intervenes in the currency markets to reduce volatility and not to target any level.


“As soon as the rupee opened, the came in. In such instances, the usually comes in not to reverse the trend but to slow things down. There is no point working against the market forces when the forces are so strong,” said Imran Kazi, vice-president–risk advisory, Mecklai Financial Services.


“If tensions continue for some days, things could get worse for the rupee. It can breach 76 to a dollar and even reach 76.3-76.4 per dollar levels,” said Kazi, adding, “No other economic factor will now be looked at… only how the war pans out,” indicating the geopolitical situation could be the only driving force for the rupee in the near term.






“More updates on the escalation between the two nations could keep the rupee weighed down. We expect the spot dollar-rupee to trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 75.5-76.2,” said Somaiya.


The only silver lining for the currency is if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decides to step up oil production, bringing down crude oil prices from the present-day levels. Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since 2014. High oil prices weigh on domestic currency since India imports more than 80 per cent of its oil requirements.


India’s macroeconomic fundamentals are much stronger than 2013-14 when the US Federal Reserve’s taper tantrums led to a currency crisis. The current account deficit at 1.3 per cent of gross domestic product is within manageable limits. In addition, the country has around $630 billion of forex reserves that can cover at least 15 months of imports.

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